Dead-On-Balls Accurate

On September 2nd, with 30 games left, I posted my prediction for how the Yankees would finish out the remainder of their season. Here's what I wrote:

-1 w/ Baltimore: W
-4 w/ Toronto: W,W,L,L
-4 w/ Tampa Bay: W,W,L,L
-3 w/ Baltimore: W,W,L
-1 w/ Los Angeles: W
-2 w/ Toronto: W,W
-3 w/ Seattle: W,W,L
-3 w/ Los Angeles: W,L,L
-3 w/ Boston: W,L,L
-3 w/ Kansas City: W,W,W
-3 w/ Tampa Bay: W,W,L

Going into tonight's game, the Yankees are 84-48. If they stay on track with what I've laid out here--19-11--they will finish the season at a super impressive 103-59.

Now, as the Yankees sit back tonight and watch the Tigers and Twins play a one-game playoff to decide who will fly into NY to play Game 1 of the ALDS tomorrow at The Stadium, I wanted to go back and see how I did.

I didn't predict game-by-game since I didn't know the pitching match ups, so 'Correct' or 'Incorrect' refers to the series as a whole compared to how I picked it. The first set of brackets is how it affected the prediction overall (I was incorrect in my pick of a sweep over Kansas City so they lost a game, but I was also incorrect in my pick of two losses to Tampa Bay, in which they picked up two games), and in the second set of brackets is how the series actually played out. Here we go:

-1 w/ Baltimore: W
Correct (W)

-4 w/ Toronto: W,W,L,L
Correct (W,L,W,L)

-4 w/ Tampa Bay: W,W,L,L
Incorrect (+2) (W,W,W,W)

-3 w/ Baltimore: W,W,L
Incorrect (-1) (L,L,W)

-1 w/ Los Angeles: W
Correct (W)

-2 w/ Toronto: W,W
Incorrect (-1) (L,W)

-3 w/ Seattle: W,W,L
Incorrect (-1) (L,W,L)

-3 w/ Los Angeles: W,L,L
Incorrect (+1) (L,W,W)

(It's worth pointing out here that the Yankees clinched a playoff spot in the second win of that series. At the end of the series, with a record of 97-56, they were still on track for my 103-59 prediction with 9 to play.)

-3 w/ Boston: W,L,L
Incorrect (+2) (W,W,W)

(With the sweep against an uninterested Sox team, they reached 100 wins and clinched the division. I was now an overall +2 over my prediction. I figured this series would be more important for the Sox than it was.)

-3 w/ Kansas City: W,W,W
Incorrect (-1) (W,W,L)

(Clinching the division helped me here, as the Yankees played mostly subs/kids in these three games, understandably so.)

-3 w/ Tampa Bay: W,W,L
Incorrect (-1) (L,L,W)

(I'm a genius! Actually, I was really nervous going into this series. I wanted to be right about 103 wins, but I didn't really want the Yankees to go into the playoffs on a losing note. While opening with the two losses helped me out in my prediction, it was tough to watch. Kudos to A-Rod for getting to 30/100 in an injury-shortened season and giving a positive ending.)

So. I was right on the money. Dead-on-balls accurate, if you will.

3 series were correct and 8 were incorrect, but at the same time, that's counting three as incorrect because they won more than I predicted. I assumed the Angels would continue their dominance in LA and that the Red Sox and Rays would be playing harder at those points.

But still--103 and 59. Hard to believe (or is it?) from a team that managed only 89 wins last year and didn't even sniff the playoffs.

Now we wait and see who they'll play. I think the Tigers will win tonight, but I'd rather play the Twins. Joe Mauer is a beast, no doubt about it, and they've got some other offensive talent (although nobody better than Cabrera/Granderson), but with no Morneau, and nobody on their pitching staff even in the same league as a Justin Verlander, I think the Twinkies would be a better match-up.

Then again, the Yankees only lost once the entire season to both of these teams combined, so I feel pretty good about it either way.

My prediction? Yankes play the Tigers and beat them in 4. I'm thinking we'll see a big offensive series out of A-Rod and Tex, an extremely well-pitched game from Burnett, and an over/under of 5 for stolen bases by Gardner, and I'm taking the over.

Also, I see the Red Sox beating the Angels in 5, setting up another Yanks/Sox October pairing.

And as if that's not enough, here's a gift to myself, and you:



Starting at the 1:28 mark, specifically.

More soon.

JS