“The roses in the window box have tilted to one side.
Everything about this house was born to grow and die.”
Sometimes when I'm at work, I forget what day it is. And that may be because of a lack of sleep, or a lack of coffee, or just general forgetfulness, but the reason it usually happens is because my job involves a lot of planning for the future. The majority of my work is done, not for projects happening today or tomorrow, but for events occurring six months-to-a-year down the road.
Nothing about this process excites me. I’m a results-oriented person. I like to plan, execute, sit back, and watch the results. I like the buzz one gets from seeing hard work come to fruition.
This leads me to believe, among other reasons, that even as much as I love gadgets, I would not enjoy working in the technology field. Technology is born to die, it’s that simple. As soon as something is released, a newer version is already in the works. We all know that old-school mentality about the value of a car depreciating $5000 as soon as you drive it off the lot. Well that’s nothing compared to what the technology field faces at the moment, as memory becomes cheaper and expectations grow larger.
It is with this logic in mind that I have come to understand that the iPhone, even as it sits untouched in it’s place of prominence in the technological landscape, is almost certainly facing it’s imminent death.
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Above is the invitation that the media received yesterday for Apple’s upcoming event at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts on January 27th. Anybody with a pulse and a pair of tangled white earbuds thinks they know what the latest creation is: the fabled Apple tablet.
I’m not enough of an insider to make bold predictions about what the tablet will or will not be able to do. Nor am I tech-savvy enough to say what the chances are of the tablet containing an OLED screen or some type of mind-blowing interaction scheme. As a dedicated consumer, what I did decide was that I will not purchase the tablet unless it gives me the ability to do at least three things that I can’t accomplish on my iPhone and/or my MacBook. I can’t say what those things are—just that I can’t do them, or at the very least, I can’t do them easily, with any of my current mobile technology.
And up until a few days ago, I was firm in my resolution.
*
“Oh, it doesn’t seem a year ago to this very day.
You said, “I’m sorry, honey, if I don’t change the pace, I can’t face another day.”
I was sitting and talking with my friend Pete at lunch last week, and inevitably, the tablet came up. At this point, much to the chagrin of our friends and significant others, we’ve already investigated, debated, debugged, and are working our way through what the 2nd generation tablet should have in order to make up for what the 1st generation tablet was lacking. Even though, you know, it doesn’t exist yet.
We spend a lot of time debating the tablet. Since our conversations started, I've been part of the camp that feels it will be an over-sized iPod Touch, while Pete has been hoping for more of a stripped-down notebook, er, flatbook (for fuck’s sake, Apple, can’t you just release the name of this thing already?). My feeling is that Apple wants to go for the tweeners and the peekers—people who have seen and maybe even played with their friend’s iPhone or iPod Touch, but are just too scared to take the leap to the full leap to a MacBook or further.
On this particular day last week, Pete and I were debating what the tablet will have in terms of internet connectivity—Pete was arguing that some type of monthly data plan will be in play while I was firm in my belief that wi-fi would be the only option.
(Pete is also convinced that this data plan will be made available through Verizon, naturally, which then set us aflame with giddy joy thinking of the rumor-mongering that will ensue until the 4th generation iPhone is announced. If Apple is already in bed with Big Red, it would seem logical that the next step would be to put the best smartphone available on the best network, right? Right? I signed into my AT&T account just to see when my contract is up before realizing that everything we'd decided was nothing more than our imaginations gone wild. We’re both seeking professional help, don’t worry.)
Eventually, Pete said something very important:
I mean, I pay for the phone minutes in order to get my data plan.
I replied that I felt the same. Then I said:
Imagine if you could get a data plan for the iPod Touch?
And that’s when it hit me.
“Hey,” I said. “What if—oh my, God. Pete, I think I figured it out.”
*
On July 21st, Gizmodo’s Matt Buchanan reported on Apple’s Third Quarter financial results:
Details on the iPod decline: The drop in iPod sales was entirely limited to the "traditional MP3 players," the Classic, nano and shuffle. Apple says they expected this, saying it's "one of the reasons we developed the iPhone and iPod touch. We expect traditional MP3 players to decline over time as we cannibalize ourselves" with the iPhone and touch. Translation: Apple basically just said the traditional iPods are walking dinosaurs. To that point, the iPod touch actually grew 130 percent, making the sales decline of the other iPods that much more severe, since the 7 percent drop includes the touch. Also, Apple expects that trend to continue going into next quarter—more iPod touches, fewer regular iPods.
*
“I wonder if those changes have left a scar on you.
Like all the burning hoops of fire that you and I passed through.”
Here are the facts, or at the very least, somewhat provable opinions, as I see them:
-Netbooks are old news and Apple doesn’t do old news, so the tablet will have to be radically different (or at least give the appearance of being radically different) than a netbook.
-Apple has obviously struck gold with the iPhone/iPod Touch design principles and OS. They would be foolish to stray too far from either.
-It’s been reported far and wide that the tablet predates the iPhone in terms of Apple’s product development—supposedly the iPhone was actually was born from something the New York Times once referred to as the “Safari Pad.”
-On 1/13/10, The Boy Genius Report wrote that, "the tablet is basically an iPhone on steroids."
-Considering the rise, stability, and popularity of e-mail, instant messaging clients, text messaging, and social networking, using a telephone to interact with others is not only becoming decidedly unhip, it’s being noticeably phased-out of our everyday lives.
-Apple has to at least be aware of AT&T’s struggles to keep their network functioning with the strain the iPhone is currently putting on it. And up until now, we’ve all been searching for a way to beef up the network to handle the load, which would be the equivalent of improving the equipment used to drill for oil, rather than looking for alternatives to oil, and in the long run, getting the gas-guzzlers off the road. What if, instead of spending money to try and handle the load, it’s the load that needs to be lightened?
-With all of the recent failures by companies not named Apple to deliver an “iPhone killer," it has begun to be accepted that the only company that can build a true iPhone killer is--Apple.
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How many people do you know who own an iPod Touch?
Do they call it their “iPod Touch?”
Or do they call it their “iTouch?”
*
The key to realizing what the tablet will/could/might do can be found on any iPhone screen.
Just as the iPod went from being a distinct, tangible device to a little orange icon, just another application, rather than a world-changing device, soon enough, so will the “Phone” function in the iPhone.
Oh, wait.
It already is.
Apple saw the writing on the wall even before they knew what they were writing, maybe even before the wall was built:
The phone is dying.
The recent price slashing by cell phone providers of unlimited voice plans is proof enough. It’s reminiscent of the frantic defibrillator attempts of medical personnel on a person in cardiac arrest.
On my iPhone, I have 79 applications installed. Do you know how many of them have anything to do with the phone capability of my iPhone?
One—the actual “Phone” app that brings up the traditional telephone interface.
Visual Voicemail is hit-or-miss on the AT&T network. Do you know why it never really bothers me, or why its inadequacy has never really been addressed?
Because I’ve got about ten other ways for people to get in contact with me that are all quicker, cheaper, and easily accessible.
Keep repeating:
I pay for the phone in order to get my data plan.
I wish I could get a data plan for my iPod Touch.
The tablet is basically an iPhone on steroids.
The only company that can build a true iPhone killer is Apple.
And it all becomes clear.
*
“You’re a bluebird on a telegraph line, I hope you’re happy now.
Well if the wind of change comes down your way girl, you’ll make it back somehow.”
On January 27th, Apple is going to announce—something. Signs point to some type of handheld flatscreen device, but the reality is that nobody knows for sure. The event itself was only officially announced about twenty-four hours ago.
One of the main reasons that Apple has become such a successful brand is that it follows the Wayne Gretzky logic of “skating to where the puck will go, not where it is at the moment.” As it stands right now, the iPhone is king. It’s taken some body blows from the Palm Pre and the Droid and the Nexus One and maybe even from the Storm 2, but it’s still on top.
But Apple knows that nothing gold can stay. If Apple waits to make its next move once the iPhone has finally been defeated, it will already be too late.
Much like the cannibalization that took place when Apple reduced their era-defining iPod to just another application on multiple black screens full of them, on January 27th, Apple will look to do the same thing to the iPhone.
iPhone and iPod Touch users, I’d like to conduct an experiment. Scroll through your application screens. Imagine all of your favorite apps on a high resolution screen that’s about four times the size of the one you’re looking at. Imagine them working faster, more efficiently. Imagine your movies and TV shows. All the games you’ve become so attached to. Imagine enhanced content from your favorite newspapers, magazines, and books. Imagine Facebook. Imagine Skype. Imagine SMS and MMS-style threaded conversations. Imagine video streaming apps and photo manipulation programs. Imagine paying half of what you pay now for all of it.
Now think about what I didn’t mention—and tell me—until I pointed it out, did you even think twice about it not being there?
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If for some reason you can’t follow along online, I’ll let you know what is finally unveiled by Steve Jobs at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts on January 27th.
I can’t promise that I know what it will be, but I can promise you this:
When I tell you, we probably won’t be talking on the phone.
More soon.
JS
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